”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. . Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersLog in. 6 billion Snowy Hydro… We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. 85% to 4. 9. Like. 2:58 AM · Jun 30, 2023. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users In this conversation. “@BruceMeaney @cjoye I don’t know if it’s good. Bang on our forecast for 15-25% cumulative loss. See charts below for the latest daily index data for Syd/Melb @cjoye banks are throwing everything to keep the arrears off the books, giving repayment holidays, turning loans into 30-40 year mortgages interest free, & CBA anyone ahead on their loan schedule are getting repayment discounts! @cjoye I think you’re missing a factor from your interest rate property price calculator, how many investors were using a rising market to facilitate/service their loans, buy new properties& hide some properties under company trusts to hide their debt positions. OAKVILLE, ON — September 1, 2022 — Today marks the start of a new chapter for JOY RADIO (CJYE) as it unveils not only a new look, but a new feel to their. “@cjoye Watched The Big Short again last night - I fear the can kicking is going to end soon and we will have our very own subprime moment. @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. 1%. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…” Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. Lower bound of our 15-25pc forecast correction could be an optimistic outcome…”Log in. I am not a house price bull. Our subs will likely need to contain the most serious expansionist ambitions of an India we haven't yet met in the 2040s”“Huge jump in Sydney auction clearance rate to 74. The stunning incident occurred in the waters off Werri Beach in New South Wales on Sunday and was captured on video. 6 billion Snowy Hydro…We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. Interesting. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. Youre allowed to tweet at new cycle-low milestones only. I believe this includes offset accounts. @parrapower2022 @solo_dio_ @rabbit_wealth @AvidCommentator @BikoKonstantin1 @Aus__Property @rabbit_wealth @justthink1 @cjoye . Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 4% this time last yr. 18 Jul 2023 02:09:39. @cjoye. ConversationA not so tiny drop in some parts of the country. @cjoye. Since first RBA May hike, Syd/national market has fallen at 23%/14% annualised pace. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. No wonder RBA is slowing down. Sydney is off 10. christopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower of cost of capital than normal debt instruments without an ESG label. Retweets. “Real interest rate hammer has yet to fall would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 0% (0. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09“RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…”christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. “@cjoye Mate, what's the go with this fund you run? You are doing a terrible job managing other people's money! By the way, #bitcoin was trading around $8. Sydney (+1. 6%mom) prices led the increase. Try and think of the whole story not the macro people want you to hear and fear”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested [email protected]! From US2yr notes to the Russell2000 and Peleton, Netflix, AfterPay etc etc etc. 04 May 2023 06:47:40Log in. @TheKouk · Jul 8. 85% to 4. There was only one way to go. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@KurtMickan @cjoye If the current conditions remain I would expect prices to fall. I doubt the rise over the previous Q was sustainable, given the reduction in borrowing power. @cjoye posits #stock are 20% overvalued given the 5% discount rate -> seeing this in earnings #mastercard and #carnival both accelerating earnings, but not rewarded post. com. 8 per cent, it would mean that purchasing power has been eroded by a total of 33 per cent since the RBA kicked off this cycle in May last year. . 9:35 PM · Aug 9, 2022 · Twitter Web App. this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%. 4. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App@cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. au. FML 🫠”“@cjoye Too corrupt and too much poverty. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2%. “First housing bear in my cross-hairs: UBS concedes yesterday, "Looking fwd, we had expected home prices could drop 10%, but it could be smaller now. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. “@cjoye It seems a bit silly to me that an actor, doing an advert, with a script, on the television, should suddenly become a financial commentator on cryptocurrencies. Last Friday was a normal day for us: we did about $450m of trades, and I actively directed ~$300m of them. . 7% in 11 days of Aug); Melb down 3. “Pretty clear RBA has been spooked by house price collapse, which is only going to get worse”christopher joye on Twitter. Maybe u can get annoyed that the advertisers allowed this ad? But Matt Damon isn't a financial expert, how is he gonna predict what happens in mkts in 2022, lol. . Log in. ”“With an inflation-targeting central bank, cash is actually one of your best inflation hedges”See new Tweets. @cjoye. afr. “@cjoye Step forward for transparency, but still doesn’t stop more/different things being said in other forums (or by other RBA officials). ·. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. “India is an important ally that can’t be trusted Replying to @cjoye Usecases for blockchain are only limited by the imagination. 9:26 PM · Aug 15, 2022 · Twitter Web App. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upLog in. 30% drop wipes out 40% of gains! Its so bad REINZ has taken down old reports!”“@ddtraderr @cjoye Ummmm Yes they can refinance however this is happening because interest rates are rising ⬆️⬆️⬆️ They may be able to refinance if they paid off enough, and if the properties have appreciated in value That’s a few “ifs” in there Overall, the situation is grim at beset”“3x crypto banks now dead: Silvergate; Silicon Valley; and Signature. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 7% in July; Melbourne prices down 1. IR here are… Show more . Discerning Coins for example is a new way of collecting coins - using the blockchain! Chris, we've talked about this. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. Sydney (+1. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet. 1. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22@cjoye. commodities are a grand idea #BTC“Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB up. Victoria's annual interest bill on its debt will rise towards $9 billion/yr by 2027 according to CBA analysis. ConversationSee new Tweets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye After yeeeaars of saving for a deposit and finally getting into the market [at peak Jan 22] we now have to deal with this. Plus ,Bitcoin and Ethereum are down less than tech stocks. christopher joye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The quarterly pace of decline accelerated to. This marks a turning point in your powers. macrobusiness. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia experiences worst house price falls in 42 years, with more to come. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App @cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. 1. Investors want little to do with a sector heading for a big dose of reality. Found. @cjoye Aug 6, 2022 22pc and back in 2020 - the issue with Ukraine is there is very limited data on it as a country statistically because it was only created in the early 1990s. com. New RBA analysis shows that between 15% and 17% of all Aussie borrowers are likely to experience negative cash-flows as a result of rate hikes in the RBA's base-line and adverse scenarios“@KellyAlspals @cjoye ALD share price hasn't moved much, so either no productivity or wage-rate spiral imo. May 2. Aug 16. See new Tweets Nothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed ever Massive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. Key takeaways * 15-20% peak to trough in Australian housing prices remains the view. Likes. And inflation isn't coming down anytime soon with rents increasing Rate cuts in 2023 will simply shoot inflation back up. com. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Master Your Unstoppable Mindset. ”Log in. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Job cuts over 18mo. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. christopher joye on Twitter. @Dante57112893. afr. This will be record housing crash, 100% triggered by rate hikes - it has only just started. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. 1:24 AM · Jul 9, 2023 · 10. 3%, Melbourne/Brissie both down 6. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upLog in. It'll work right up until the point it is discovered that debt outstrips M2 money by a factor of 10:1 . Bank of M&D or other exogenous injections can only go so far. In this conversation. Show more". Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersThe data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. ”Log in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher [email protected] @DrCameronMurray: Has anyone pulled together a list of all the wrong predictions about the housing market from mid-2020? If I recall, predictions of 30% price falls were common. 6% for one year but if taken from the peak in Sept 21 its -30% plus. It would not suprise me if the government introduces 'targeted support' which ends up pumping the market for a…”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “No strong view on NSW election other than that NSW Labor Treasurer Daniel Mookhey is the smartest and hardest working politician I have ever dealt with in my life @dmookheyMLC @ALeighMP” Well you called it when you said we could likely have another series of rate hikes after the pause @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@ChandAshok @cjoye Totally agree re government mistakes but struggle to understand why ‘independent organisations’ have the power to dial up the misery of Australians in the form of unemployment and increased costs of lending. Interesting. Sign upchristopher joye @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. The Australian Financial. What’s the result?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Conversation. Sign up“@haluksenlik @cjoye There is obviously significantly more risk and fraud in crypto than in the stock market, but Matt Damon promoted a centralized brokerage that curates assets and thus doesn't expose you to the scams where possible. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change. A 30year investment for most. These people need equity Plenty of people get paid goid money a d know very little of what they do The lesson is the herd mentality is alive and well On the way uo! All the way down Probability market crash epic proportions Going to be like the car market but even more acute We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722Embed Tweet. “@cjoye Japan took over 10 years from peak to 'bottom' with a similar size bubble. Prepare for equities and property pain - my analysis. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. So presumably brought their first home. Sign upNSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey today reveals that Perrottet/Kean had planned to burden NSW taxpayers with another $25bn of debt to allow their investment arm, TCorp, to punt this money on stocks. afr. Where did you get 20% from?”RBA governor Phil Lowe said today that for Aussie inflation to hit its 2-3% target, wages can only grow at circa 3. "It's global cyber war out there". Replying to. non-bank wholesale funding costs? Seems like there is further upward pressure from o/s debt markets coming here which could even further exarcebate the fixed to variable, and those currently on variable. “@cjoye @PeteWargent Both this and Labor shared equity policy are attempts to shore up supporter bases/buy votes. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye @ALeighMP @Charlton_AB @DanielMulinoMP @AlboMP @JEChalmers Genuine question/thought. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. Rebounding asset prices would keep inflation - and rates - higher for longer. And homes are still priced above Covid levels. Conversation“@cjoye who would have thought lending money to a government with a printing press that practically can't default would result in potentially the 2nd largest bank collapse in US history 😄”In this conversation. )”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. com. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. Forecast looks good. Log in. then the printing starts again leading to further dilution of currency . Sign upIn this conversation. In this conversation. The business indicators measure of wages suggests annual growth in non-farm hourly earnings picked up to 5% in Q1, although this series has grown more strongly than the RBA’s series over the past year. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye · Aug 5. There was only one way to go. . ”“Yep. 2021 Olympic Medalist, Joey Lye, shares stories and insight into some of the mental skills and strategies that prepared her [email protected] million in crypto cant be withdrawn on FTX- $13. Ave wage vs ave savings vs ave mortgage debt does not compute in my mind-who can afford a $600k mortgage at 7% without it destroying monthly income?”“@cjoye See through the noise with China - they are in population decline as Poor Japan v2. It's very unstable at the street level. they all roll over the same. 25pc and possibly beyond, also raising risk RBA hikes past 3. “Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight “USDC 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB Sign up. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. But with a referendum and election coming in the next 12 months, in addition to a $19b surplus. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . 6%mom) prices led the increase. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Replying to . "@wmdglasgow Yes, @cjoye is one of our best journalists" (Tweet) – via Twitter. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of underlying inflation based on a truncated monthly CPI. @cjoye was one of the few to go against this IIRC. & 50% are admin. @cjoye. 4% followed by Brisbane (-8. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 6pc. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Crypto is toxic”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye RBA speech just published: almost 30% of Aussie borrowers will suffer a more than 40% increase in their mortgage repayments if the RBA lifts the cash rate by 300 basis points, though concludes everything will be ok in that event. 4%. christopher joye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5k USD when you started this fund in May 2020. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye, @masters_joanne, @ImpactEconAU & @markgkenny. See new TweetsNothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed everMassive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “The “family finances vs a year ago” sub-index dropped 8% in February, to 62. According to your own chart the annualized figure for Sydney is approx 11-12%. . Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983. In this conversation. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. . The latest tweets from @cjoye Dante. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign up“@mitch_dol @cjoye @TomInvesting This is the Jan REINZ HPI Index developed with our RBNZ. ly/3pmX9Dk. . 50% in 2019 to 0. . 4% pa return. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It would not shock me for people in 2034 to be asking "is this the year Australian property prices finally see gains?". We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Find great real estate professionals on Zillow like cjoyeThere are 9 words found that match your query. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. However, the. Quote Tweet. The latest tweets from @cjoye christopher joye. 0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. 7%. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. There were good reasons for very low rates (pre-covid) and those reasons haven’t gone away. S&P Reports Australian Home Loan Arrears Rose In December: S&P's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages increased in December to 0. Sitting on $6. 10:21 PM · Jul 8, 2022 · Twitter for iPhone. new Tweets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet the "material" upside surprise test Bullock set - despite every economist and the market saying it does. @cjoye/Twitter) Shark clamps onto diver's leg as blood and screams pour out in attack video. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle…CoreLogic is the leading property data, information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. 1%. @cjoye The monthly CPI showed underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, tracking above the RBA’s forecast profile and placing pressure on the RBA to hike again in July, where its peers are confronting the same problem of it taking too long for inflation to return to target with much higher interest rates. Log inchristopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower. Immigration is still big in Aus. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). Log in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1:56 AM · Jul 29, 2022 · Twitter Web App. 2m are customer assets. 1%, bringing total decline to 6. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users The data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" According to CoreLogic records dating back to 1980, Australian dwelling values have never fallen by more than 11% across the combined. com. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Strong academic credentials, but limited real world experience. Someone did the math on how the housing ponzi affects this generation compared to the days of old. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be defenders of last resort of the great Australian credit fuelled housing bubble. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22 Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users “Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. When the cryptobros realise the startup founders need to cash in their crypto investments because SVB is experiencing a bank run. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09 “RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…” christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. 2m are customer assets. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…”@cjoye. “House price crash update: Syd prices down 6. @cjoye @PodcastFear. “@TvcMike @cjoye tech/growth/risk assets, makes any real sense. I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. It. ”While lots of people talk about the risk of war without actually understanding the odds, new research sheds light on the probability of major power conflict. 2 days ago. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722 Embed Tweet. In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye In an apartment complex of 100, it only takes 2 or 3 sales to mark down the whole 100. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in the following weeks. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “Aussie house price crash about to pass through all-time record of an 11% peak-to-trough loss. “@cjoye Chris, you do realise that we have 30,000 arrivals per month, when in April we only started 2500 new dwellings? There are people coming from overseas using foreign currency to rent or buy property with currency that has appreciated against the Aud by 15% in the past six months. “@bluntman_eth @Tombeecon @cjoye So they just entered the real estate market. Log in. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. NSW's interest bill will surge past $7 billion/yr according to Treasurer @dmookheyMLC. Given the number of markets that have had this set up and tanked. Found. 1. Massive portion of the population realising they are not going to achieve an acceptable basic standard of living. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. . Considering the RBA's housing price model predicts some pretty major price falls if rates rise 1%, it would be interesting to see how falling real wages may potentially exacerbate that. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . Embarrassingly wrong. 5%, the Bank of Canada at 4. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. Both are inflationary to housing and do nothing to address affordability. 5%; 5 capital cities have fallen 3. “@cjoye Sir. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us.